Can Thirumavalavan make the difference?

The unfeigned efforts taken by Mr.Ramadass to include the Dalit Panthers in Democratic Progressive Alliance ended in vain as the leader of the DPA expressed his inability to accommodate the Panthers. This situation necessitated Mr.Thol.Thirumavalavan to take a different stand in this assembly election for its political survival.

Mr.Thiruma concluded the alliance and seat sharing business in a flash of time without any perturbation. He didn’t require any persistent negotiation or continuous sittings, which the other alliance partners (MDMK, PMK, CPI and CPI (M)) in DPA are undergoing with DMK to conclude the electoral pact with ADMK. The agreement was hassle free with the nine winnable seats for his party.

He was not successful in his attempts to capitalize the idea of floating the Third Front along with PMK before forging this alliance with ADMK. The justification which Mr.Thiruma quoting for the alliance is passable as it is the high time for his party to get the recognition of the Election Commission. The same justification was given by both PMK and MDMK when they aligned with ADMK in 1998 parliament election.

When analyzing the alliance of DPI with ADMK, two factors needs to be considered. The first one of course the electoral benefits which ADMK getting out of Mr.Thiruma and the second one is the threat to the social harmony put in place in the recent years by Mr.Ramadass and Mr.Thirumavalavan in North Tamilnadu.

The facts and figures from the last two elections (2001 Assembly election and 2004 Parliament Election) indicate that Mr.Thiruma is developing as formidable force in northern districts of Tamilnadu. In the 2001 Assembly elections DPI was with the DMK led front which faced the defeat all over Tamilnadu except in Chennai and Cuddalore.

DPI has nothing to do with the Chennai victory, as it is the traditional stronghold of DMK. But the front had won 5 out of 9 assembly segments in Cuddalore irrespective of the strong presence of PMK (was with ADMK front) in the district. The DMK front candidates emerged victorious in Cuddalore, Kurunjipadi, Kattumanarkoil, Mangalore and Chidambaram because of the strength of the DPI.

Even in the last Parliament election, he gave the tough fight to the DPA candidate in the Chidambaram constituency. He polled well above the ADMK front candidate in Chidambaram. He finished second in 5 out of 6 assembly segments in Chidambaram constituency and polled higher than DPA candidate in Kattumanarkoil assembly segment.

Apart from the election prospective, his acquaintance with Mr.Ramadass in the name of Tamil movement is a healthy development, which eventually enriched the social concordance between the two oppressed communities. Though both the leaders reassured their relationship would not be shattered by this electoral pact, it may alter the equilibrium in the grass root level when both the parties have face-to-face contest.

It is unfortunate to see both DMK and ADMK annexing the Dalit parties when they don’t have a choice and casting them away when they have solid alliance. If the Panthers victory progresses in the same fashion it might turn out to be a potential loss to the DMK front and substantial gain to the ADMK front. This election is the acid test for the DPI to showcase their potential in tilting the victory margin in North Tamilnadu.